The Rise Of Asia

via RCP, Robert Kaplan writes an excellent strategic essay at the NY Times about the rise of Asia's military powers - China, India, Japan, and Pakistan in particular. Japan, with over 100 warships, now boasts a navy three time larger than the UK, for example.

"The twin trends of a rising Asia and a politically crumbling Middle East will most likely lead to a naval emphasis on the Indian Ocean and its surrounding seas, the sites of the “brown water” choke points of world commerce — the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the Bab el Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea, and Malacca. These narrow bodies of water will become increasingly susceptible to terrorism, even as they become more and more clogged with tankers bringing Middle Eastern oil to the growing middle classes of India and China. The surrounding seas will then become home territory to Indian and Chinese warships, protecting their own tanker routes."

The major issue for the US is to remain engaged, without taking sides in the multitude of territorial disputes between these new Asian powers. Traditional balance of power statecraft in this region will have to employed, but very subtly. China and several of its neighbors have shaky relationships. The US, as a Pacific power without territorial ambitions, can and should be an indispensible honest broker for the region, but we can't afford to be incapable of leveraging our own assets in the area either.

"In the vast oceanic spaces bordering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, air, sea and space power will be paramount both as means of deterrence and of guarding the sea lanes. A global power at peace still requires a navy and an air force deployed as far forward as possible. That costs money. Even with the gargantuan cost of Iraq, our defense budget is still under 5 percent of our gross domestic product, low by historical standards.

Furthermore, the very vitality of nation-states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans will take us back to an older world of traditional statecraft, in which we will need to tirelessly leverage allies and seek cooperation from competitors. Thus we should take advantage of the rising risk of terrorism and piracy in order to draw the Chinese and Indian Navies into joint patrols of choke points and tanker routes."

I think the idea here is to stay relevant in the region without stepping on too many toes, and try to find common ground on the issues that threaten civilization. I'd agree the nations in this area have alot more to gain by cooperation than they do by confrontation, but it will be up to their governments and their citizens, particularly the big bad dragon and its ruling oligarchy. A lot will depend on the actions of other nations, but it would be very wise of the US to maintain a vigilant yet postive outlook on the changes in Asia, and follow the wise words of America's last turn of the century president.