Republican Polling

Most polls of the presidential primary races show Hillary Clinton leading big among the Democrats, and Rudy Guiliani among the Republicans. The RCP Septemeber average of 4 or 5 different polls shows Clinton up 18 points over Barak Obama, and Rudy up 5 over Fred Thompson. See their numbers here.

One poll, the Rasmussen, shows a bit different results, however. It has Fred Thompson up two points, and has a slightly different methodology. Rasmussen screens for Likely Republican Primary voters, while the other polls generally simply survey adults. I would have to think Rasmussen is therefore a great deal more accurate as a result. While the Gallup poll, for instance, has Rudy up 8 points, when they examine the numbers from likely primary voters, his lead shrinks to three points. As Rasmussen puts it:

"It gets even more interesting when Gallup combines their last four surveys and takes a look at the more informed voters. Gallup says “Indeed, among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates -- less than half the party base -- the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.”

Those Gallup numbers are very similar to the Rasmussen numbers. Not only does Gallup’s sample of informed voters show Thompson ahead of Giuliani, they also match Rasmussen by showing Romney ahead of McCain.

Why does Gallup’s sample of informed voters look so much like the Rasmussen sample of Likely Voters? Because those more informed voters are precisely the kind of people who show up and vote in a primary."

Of course, Thomspon is perceived as the leading conservative in the race, and primary voters tend to be a bit more conservative than the average voter. Thus, most observers are overlooking Thompson's strength with the party base, and the poll numbers generally overstate Rudy's support. I'd also note that there is still a great deal of undecideds out there looking for a candidate to step up - and I beleive it will be Fred.