2008 Electoral Map

Excellent look at the electoral map for 2008, along with some good analysis of the recent history in the "swing" states and some new targets of opportunity for both parties by Rhodes Cook at RCP. Recent voting over the last few elections has the West Coast and NE Atlantic states going to the Democrats, with the Middle West and Southern states (forming an L on the map) going Republican, and the Upper Midwestern states being the battleground "swing" states. This could well change in 2008, however as Cook explains the potential for a Democratic tidal wave.

"Democrats are not only gearing up to contest the usual hot spots where they fell short the last time--such as Ohio, Iowa, Missouri and Florida, the latter the most highly competitive state of late within the "L." But they also appear ready to make a run in a number of states that have long been considered part of the Republican base. Many of the Democratic targets of opportunity are in the Mountain West. But an early target list would also include Virginia, where Democrats appear to have found the formula for statewide success by establishing a beachhead in the burgeoning vote-rich suburbs of Northern Virginia......The trend is also encouraging for the Democrats in much of the Mountain West. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico all were carried by Clinton at least once in the 1990s. And Democrats came within 5 points of winning Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico again in 2004. Momentum is with the Democrats in the Mountain West. In 2006, they picked up a pair of House seats in Arizona, gained a governorship and an additional House seat in Colorado, and captured a Senate seat in Montana. In Virginia, Democrats followed two successive gubernatorial victories with an upset victory in the 2006 Senate race which gave them control of the U.S. Senate.

To be sure, Republicans have their own targets of opportunity in 2008, led by a quartet of major electoral vote prizes across the industrial Frost Belt including Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Each went Democratic last time by a margin of less than 4 percentage points."

Those Mountain West states are seeing a lot of population growth, and a sizable portion of it is coming from people fleeing the West coast. The loss of even a couple western states for the Republicans could have a big impact on the presidential election.