Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Peak Oil

or maybe not. From TCS Daily.

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=031306C

Main point of the article is that as technology advances, and price increases, more oil suddenly becomes available to exttract profitably. I'd say duh! but too many people don't get it already.
Again, basic economics. And I note that this doesn't even touch the abiogenesis theory. (The theory that oil doesn't come from the remains of dead organisms but that it simply leaches up from deep within the earth's interior).

Great quote about how proven reserves have increased over time.

"In 1970, experts believed the world had 612 billion barrels of proved reserves. Over the next three decades, more than 767 billion barrels would be pumped. Did we use up all the world's oil and then some? Hardly. Conservative estimates today place the world's provable oil reserves at 1.2 trillion barrels. New deposits of oil haven't been created. It's just that human ingenuity has come up with ways to get hard-to-reach deposits."

The bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon comes to mind.
Ehrlich said we would run out of several important minerals within our lifetime. Simon disagreed and bet that the price of these minerals would decline (in inflation adjusted terms, of course) over the period of the bet.

Simon won, of course.

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